Orchestrated energy

ABSTRACT

A facility providing systems and methods for managing and optimizing energy consumption and/or production is provided. The facility provides techniques for optimizing energy-consuming and energy-producing systems to meet specified demands or goals in accordance with various constraints. The facility relies on models to generate an optimization for an energy system. In order to use generic models to simulate and optimize energy consumption for an energy system, the generic models are calibrated to properly represent or approximate conditions of the energy system during the optimization period. After the appropriate models have been calibrated for a given situation using one or more modeling parameter sets, the facility can simulate inputs and responses for the corresponding system. The facility uses the generated simulations to generate a plan or control schedule to be implemented by the energy system during the optimization period.

RELATED APPLICATIONS

This application claims the benefit of U.S. Provisional Application No.62/317,426, entitled ORCHESTRATED ENERGY, filed on Apr. 1, 2016, whichis herein incorporated by reference in its entirety. In cases where thepresent application and a document incorporated herein by referenceconflict, the present application controls.

BACKGROUND

As energy resources become scarcer, and as people become moreenvironmentally conscious, their desire optimize energy consumption andreduces costs has increased. Although there have been many attempts toimprove energy conservation and reduce energy costs, these attempts donot typically satisfy the demands or goals of customers and/or utilizesor coordinate between the goals of those customers and utilities. Forexample, demand management systems (direct load control systems) enableutilities to essentially turn off end-user devices (e.g., airconditioning units) when demand peaks to, for example, avoid blackoutsor rolling brownouts. However, end-users may not receive advance noticeof the shutoff and may find themselves uncomfortable at inopportunetimes. As another example, a user can use a thermostat to create atemperature schedule for a building so that the user remains comfortablewhile occupying the building. However, the schedules may not take intoaccount the cost of energy, thereby ignoring any potential for costsavings to the user, the utility, or both in a market that can havevolatile pricing. Furthermore, while the “Internet of Things” hascreated a wealth of sensors and other devices within various energysystems to measure both the energy consumption of the system and theenvironment within which the system operates, these sensors do not oftencommunicate effectively.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

FIG. 1 is a block diagram illustrating an environment in which thedisclosed facility may operate.

FIG. 2 is a flow diagram illustrating the processing of an optimizecomponent.

FIG. 3 is a data structure diagram illustrating a modeling parametersets data store.

FIG. 4 is a flow diagram illustrating the processing of a build librarycomponent.

FIG. 5 is a flow diagram illustrating the processing of a selectmodeling parameter set component.

FIG. 6 is a flow diagram illustrating the processing of a generate plancomponent.

FIG. 7 is a flow diagram illustrating the processing of a linearizecomponent.

FIG. 8 is a flow diagram illustrating the processing of an implementplan component.

DETAILED DESCRIPTION

A facility providing systems and methods for managing and optimizingenergy consumption and/or production is provided. The facility providestechniques for optimizing energy-consuming and energy-producing systems(“energy systems”) to meet specified demands or goals, such as reducingload, reducing cost, increasing usage of specific types of energysources (e.g., solar or wind), reducing usage of specific types ofenergy sources (e.g., coal or hydroelectric), increasing comfort withina building, and so on in accordance with various time-dependentconstraints (e.g., a user's temperature comfort band during certaintimes of day, willingness to use energy provided by various sources(e.g., nuclear) during certain times of year). The demands, goals,and/or constraints may be specified by a resident or owner of one ormore energy systems, a building, a utility, an energy service provider,and so on. For example, the facility may reduce the cost of energy (agoal) by shifting loads to lower-priced periods and avoiding loadsduring higher-priced periods. As another example, the facility mayreduce the climate impact of loads (a goal) by shifting loads to lowercarbon intense periods and avoiding loads during higher carbon intenseperiods. As another example, the facility may increase the use of“green” or renewable energy sources (a goal), such as sun, wind, rain,tide, waves, or geothermal energy, by reducing loads when providedenergy comes from nonrenewable resources. As another example, thefacility may increase the use of solar generation used onsite byshifting loads to periods of time with higher solar generation. One ofordinary skill in the art will recognize that the techniques disclosedherein provide improved techniques for controlling and using energysystems, such as a heating, ventilation, and air conditioning system, asolar panel system, a battery charging system, and so on. The disclosedtechniques provide solutions to problems presented by previoustechniques of controlling and using energy systems, such as inefficientuse of these systems (both in terms of financial cost and energy usage),improper use of these systems (e.g., overuse), inconvenient control bydemand management systems, improper scheduling, and so on.

The facility can also take into account various constraints whilegenerating an optimization for a system. For example, a user may wish toconstrain the indoor temperature of a building to between an upper andlower bound of the user's comfortable temperature range; constrain theoutlet water temperature between the upper and lower bound of the user'shot water temperature range; constrain a battery's charge level to meetthe user's objective, for example, maintaining a minimum charge levelfor emergency discharge of the battery; constrain an electric vehicle'scharge level to meet the user's electric vehicle charge goal that willyield a certain number of vehicle miles traveled by a certain time;constrain the lumen level of a lighting system to meet the user's upperand lower bound of lighting levels; and/or constrain the particulatelevel of a pool between the upper and lower bound of the user'sparticulate concentration range. The facility can be configured tooptimize energy consumption or production in accordance withoptimization goals and constraints for any type of energy system, suchas an individual device (e.g., a lamp, a pool pump, a water heater); asystem comprising multiple controllable devices, such as a house or abank of solar panels; a larger system comprising multiple buildings(e.g., a block of houses or an entire neighborhood), and so on.Accordingly, the facility provides optimization techniques for energysystems in accordance with specified goals and constraints.

In some embodiments, the facility relies on a number of non-lineargeneric models (e.g., a generic thermal model, a generic electricalmodel) to generate an optimization for an energy system. Each non-lineargeneric model relates a number of inputs and attributes of an energysystem to a number of outputs or responses of the energy system. Inother words, each non-linear generic model comprises one or moreequations that can be used to calculate or estimate a specific value(e.g., indoor temperature, charge, water temperature, lumens) based on aset of inputs (e.g., outdoor temperature, outdoor wind pressure, stateof charge transfer, light state). For example, a non-linear genericmodel may relate a number of dependent or predictive variables to one ormore independent variables (explanatory variables and/or calibrationvariables) of an energy consumption system along with any externalfactors affecting the energy system (i.e., its surrounding environment).In this manner, calculations or estimates for predictive variablesdepend on the one or more observables (e.g., explanatory variables, thecalibration variables, and/or external factors). For example, anon-linear generic model for the energy consumption of a heating,ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) system within a building mayrelate a predictive variable for a thermostat (e.g., indoor temperature)to states of various HVAC equipment (e.g., thermostat settings, aircondition settings, fan settings), outdoor temperature and extent ofcloud cover, and/or any of the calibration variables in Table 1.

TABLE 1 SI Units (Standard Variable Name International (examples)notation) Description coolingSystemCapacity W thermal capacity of thebuilding cooling system heatingSystemCapacity W thermal capacity of thebuilding heating system cooling_COP unitless coefficient of performanceof the cooling system heating_COP unitless coefficient of performance ofthe heating system R_wall (K*m{circumflex over ( )}2)/W thermalresistance of the building exterior walls rho_wall kg/m{circumflex over( )}3 mass-density of the building exterior walls cp_wall Wh/(kg*K)specific heat capacity of the building exterior walls thick_wall mthickness of the building exterior walls SHGC_wall unitless solar heatgain coefficient of the building exterior walls (from direct beamirradiance) H_wall W/(K*m{circumflex over ( )}2) heat transfer or filmcoefficient of the building exterior walls winWallRatio unitless ratioof window area to the building exterior wall area H_windowW/(K*m{circumflex over ( )}2) heat transfer or film coefficient of thebuilding windows R_window (K*m{circumflex over ( )}2)/W thermalresistance of the building windows U_window W/(K*m{circumflex over( )}2) thermal conductivity of the building windows SHGC_window unitlesssolar heat gain coefficient of the building windows (from direct beamirradiance) SHGCd_window unitless solar heat gain coefficient of thebuilding windows (from diffuse irradiance) nWinPanes unitless number ofpanes of glass in the building windows H_mass W/(K*m{circumflex over( )}2) heat transfer or film coefficient of the building internal massrho_mass kg/m{circumflex over ( )}3 mass-density of the buildinginternal mass cp_mass Wh/(kg*K) specific heat capacity of the buildinginternal mass thick_mass m thickness of the building internal massH_floor W/(K*m{circumflex over ( )}2) heat transfer or film coefficientof the building floor R_floor (K*m{circumflex over ( )}2)/W thermalresistance of the building floor U_floor W/(K*m{circumflex over ( )}2)thermal conductivity of the building floor rho_floor kg/m{circumflexover ( )}3 mass-density of the building floor cp_floor Wh/(kg*K)specific heat capacity of the building floor thick_floor m thickness ofthe building floor R_roof (K*m{circumflex over ( )}2)/W thermalresistance of the building roof rho_roof kg/m{circumflex over ( )}3mass-density of the building roof cp_roof Wh/(kg*K) specific heatcapacity of the building roof thick_roof m thickness of the buildingroof SHGC_roof unitless solar heat gain coefficient of the building roofpGain_hourly W internal thermal gains due to people IGain_hourly Winternal thermal gains due to lights eGain_hourly W internal thermalgains due to appliances ACH 1/hr infiltration factor or number of airchanges per hour H_kappa W/K coefficient of convective heat transferbetween bulk and laminar air components, scaled by the area of thermalinterface between the two air zones

For example, one open source thermal model for a building is Energy Plusdescribed by Crawley, D. B., Lawrie, L. K., Winkelmann, F. C., Buhl, W.F., Huang, Y. J., Pedersen, C. O., Strand, R. K., Liesen, R. J., Fisher,D. E., Witte, M. J. and Glazer, J., 2001 in EnergyPlus: creating anew-generation building energy simulation program. Energy and Buildings,33(4), pp. 319-331, which is herein incorporated by reference in itsentirety. One of ordinary skill in the art will recognize that a modelmay include any number of inputs to the model and relate those inputs toany number of outputs or responses for the model. Furthermore, one ofordinary skill in the art will recognize that various models may begenerated for different devices, device types, and/or systems associatedwith energy consumption, such as thermostat settings, solar consumption,water heater usage, battery usage and charging, electric vehiclechargers, lighting, systems, pool pumps, and so on. Predictive variablesor outputs for a model may include, for example, indoor humidity, solarpower production, outlet water temperature, battery charge, electricvehicle charge, lighting lumens, particulate level in a pool, filterpressure in a pool, and so on. Explanatory variables or inputs to amodel may include, for example, panel orientation and inverterefficiency module for a solar panel system; inlet water temperature andstate of heating element for a water heater; state of charge transferand battery temperature for a battery; state of charge transfer, batterytemperature, and distance traveled for an electric vehicle chargingsystem; light state for a lighting system; pump state, pump flow rate,and water temperature for a pool pump; and so on. For further discussionand use of models, please see U.S. patent application Ser. No.13/829,252, filed Mar. 14, 2013, entitled Personalization ofRecommendations Based on Building Model and Behavioral Science, which isherein incorporated by reference in its entirety.

In some embodiments, an energy system may react differently to the sameinputs depending on, for example, the current state of the system,external factors affecting the system, and so on. For example, thecurrent indoor temperature of a building may change at different rateswhen a thermostat is set to 70° F. if the current indoor temperature is65° F. than if the current indoor temperature is 45° F. Similarly, therate at which a battery can be charged may differ depending on thecurrent charge and age of the battery. Thus, in order to use the genericmodels to simulate and optimize energy consumption for an energy system,the generic models can be calibrated to properly represent orapproximate conditions of the energy system during the optimizationperiod (i.e., the period during which the facility is to optimize energyconsumption and/or production). For example, the facility can beconfigured to optimize energy consumption on a daily basis, where eachconsecutive twenty-four-hour period represents a separate optimizationperiod.

In some embodiments, the facility uses modeling parameter sets tocalibrate a generic model for a specific situation. A modeling parameterset relates a number of actual environmental conditions to actualphysical characteristics of the energy system. For example, a modelingparameter set for a building may relate specific values for a thermalenvelope, a strength of response, heat gain, thermal mass, startingtemperatures of surfaces within the building, and so on to specificvalues for weather conditions, occupancy information for the building,and so on. As another example, a modeling parameter set for a solarsystem may relate energy production to solar path information and cloudcover. In other words, each modeling parameter set specifies howphysical characteristics (e.g., calibration variables) of the energysystem are affected or influenced by environmental conditions. Thus,each modeling parameter set enables the facility to calibrate a model sothat the model properly represents or approximates physicalcharacteristics of the energy system given a set of environmentalconditions so that the facility can predict the behavior of the energysystem during future periods having similar predicted environmentalconditions. Thus, if the facility is to simulate conditions within anenergy system during a particular day or other period, the facility candetermine predicted environmental conditions for that day or period andretrieve a corresponding modeling parameter set from a modelingparameter set library in order to calibrate the model. As an example, acalibrated model may take the form of the set of coefficientsrepresenting the thermal conductance and resistance in the Energy Plussimulation.

In some embodiments, each calibrated model is a physics-based model ofan energy system comprising a set of functions or a set of data capableof being used by generic functions to predict operating conditions ofthat energy system. For example, a calibrated model (or associated data)for a building may include 1) entries for the building's location,square footage, type of heating, and amount of insulation, and 2) a setof functions that produce, for a building with this kind of heating andinsulation, given a particular day of the year, the likely energyconsumption due to heating on the given day. In some cases, the modelmay include additional details about the building, such as demographicsof the occupants, historical behavior measured through interactions withthe system, historical consumption, committed and completed savingsactions, and responses to questionnaires. With this information, thesystem can find correlations, for example a probabilistic model, betweeninputs to the energy system and the energy system's predicted responsesto those inputs.

In some embodiments, a modeling parameter set library is generated bytaking actual measures of the corresponding physical characteristics ofthe energy system under actual environmental conditions over the courseof a modeling period (e.g., over the course of an hour, a day, a week, amonth). For example, the facility may generate a modeling parameter setfor a building that relates envelope and thermal response of thebuilding to external temperature over the course of a day byperiodically determining envelope, thermal response, and externaltemperature values during the day. As another example, the facility mayrepeatedly measure or obtain values for each of a plurality of variables(e.g., the variables in Table 1) along with measurements for otherenvironmental conditions, such as time of day, energy fee schedules,outdoor temperature, outdoor humidity, outdoor wind speed, outdoor airpressure, outdoor irradiance (global, direct, horizontal), equipmentstates (e.g., on, off, thermostat settings, fan speeds, air conditioningunit settings), and so on. The facility can communicate with varioussensors and/or meters located in or around the building to ascertainthese values. Alternatively, or additionally, the facility may retrievethese values from one or more external sources, such as an onlineweather service or directly from users. In some cases, the facility maynot be able to obtain measures for certain variables directly (i.e.,“non-measurable attributes” or “non-measurable variables”). For example,there may be no way of measuring a thermal capacity of a buildingheating system, a coefficient of performance of the cooling system, aheat transfer or film coefficient of the building's windows, and/or athermal resistance of the building windows. In these cases, the facilitycan iterate over the non-measurable attributes in order to estimate avalue for these non-measurable attributes by determining which values,when plugged into the corresponding model, provide the best fit for theconditions measured over the modeling period. In some embodiments, thefacility relies on an error tolerance value to determine how manysimulations to perform. When the difference between the measured dataand the modeled data is within the “error tolerance,” then the facilitystops performing the simulations. In some cases, the facility sets anerror tolerance automatically based on, for example, the measured data.In some cases, an error tolerance value can be set by a user. One ofordinary skill in the art will recognize that a modeling parameter setmay relate any number of physical characteristics of an energy system toany number of environmental conditions. In some cases, one environmentalcondition may act as a proxy for another. For example, a day of the weekcan act as a proxy for occupancy within a building where the buildingexperiences similar levels of occupancy during each particular day ofthe week (e.g., “Sunday,” “Monday,” and so on), such as a business thatis open during each weekday but closed on the weekend. By regularlygenerating modeling parameter sets for a particular energy system, thefacility can establish a library for any number of environmentalconditions and the corresponding physical attributes of the energysystem. In some embodiments, the facility may use a modeling parameterset generated for one energy system to calibrate a model for anotherenergy system. For example, modeling parameter sets generated for onehome may be applicable to a neighboring home having a similar floor planand having been constructed from similar construction materials.Furthermore, the facility may generate blended modeling parameter setsby interpolating values from a combination of modeling parameter sets.

In some embodiments, after the appropriate models have been calibratedfor a given situation using one or more modeling parameter sets, thefacility can linearize constraints for the energy system and generate aplan for the energy system based on the objectives and linearizedconstraints. For example, if a model for a lighting system has beencalibrated using a modeling parameter set selected for the followingtwenty-four-hour period, the facility can uses the calibrated model tosimulate different inputs to the lighting system and predict variousoutputs or responses from the lighting system over the twenty-four-hourperiod. Similarly, a building thermal model calibrated based on apredicted weather forecast and day of the week can be used to simulatechanges (inputs) to a thermostat over the course of the next twenty-fourhours and predict how those changes to the thermostat would impact thetemperature (outputs) within the building. The simulations can begenerated at any level of granularity (e.g., simulating input changesevery one minute, five minutes, hour, day, and so on). In someembodiments, the facility invokes an optimization simulator, such as aparticle swarm optimization simulator, to simulate any number of inputs(including a string of inputs) to the energy system and generate a rangeof outcomes for the inputs and the probability that these outcomes willoccur. For example, a simulation of the thermal conditions within abuilding may simulate a number of changes to the thermostat over thecourse of a day to generate a prediction of the temperature within thebuilding based on those changes based on simulated external conditions.Similarly, a simulation of a solar power generation system may simulatea number of changes to solar panel power output based on a simulatedpath of the sun (external conditions) to produce a prediction of powerproduction of the system. One of ordinary skill in the art willrecognize that other optimization techniques may be used to simulateinputs to and the corresponding responses of an energy system, such as aMonte Carlo simulation algorithm, simulated annealing¹, a particle swarmalgorithm², an ant colony simulation algorithm, and so on. ¹Mitchell,Melanie, An Introduction to Genetic Algorithms, Cambridge, Mass.: MIT(1996).²Kennedy, J.; Eberhart, R., “Particle Swarm Optimization,”Proceedings of IEEE International Conference on Neural Networks. pp.1942-1948 (1995). doi:10.1109/ICNN.1995.488968.

In some embodiments, the facility uses simulated inputs to generate aplan, or control schedule, to be implemented by the energy system duringthe optimization period. To generate the plan, the facility invokes alinear program to identify a set of inputs to the system that best suitthe desired goals or objectives based on the linearized constraints. Forexample, if the optimization goal is to reduce power consumption, thenthe facility can identify the simulation resulting in the lowest powerconsumption while satisfying any related constraints (or with thesmallest degree of constraint violation). In some cases, the facilityinvokes a linear optimization program, such as an integer linear programor a mixed integer linear program, to identify the optimal set ofinputs. In some cases, the facility may further analyze the output ofthe simulation to generate additional values related to the optimizationgoals and/or constraints. For example, if the optimization goal is toreduce cost to the consumer, the facility can calculate the cost of eachsimulation based on, for example, a fee schedule provided by a utilityand the energy usage rate of the energy system for each simulated input.In some embodiments, the facility can determine the extent to which asimulation violates a constraint by determining the duration andmagnitude of each violation. In other words, the facility can determinethe extent to which a simulation violates one or more constraints bymeasuring the area between the simulated response curve and constraintcurve(s) while the response curve is in violation of the constraintcurves(s). In this manner, if all of the simulations violate at leastone constraint, the facility can at least identify a simulation withminimal constraint violations. In some cases, the facility may recommendone of these constraint-violating simulations to a user and alert theuser of the extent of the violation and any corresponding improvement onan optimization goal so that the user can determine whether theviolations are significant enough to forgo a control schedule thatimproves on an optimization goal. Similarly, even when there aresimulations that satisfy all of the constraints, the facility can alerta user to a constraint-violating simulation that further improves on thedesired optimization goal relative to the constraint-satisfyingsimulations. For example, the facility may alert a user that arelatively small change to a constraint (e.g., lowering the lower boundof a comfort temperature range by one degree) can have adisproportionately large and favorable change with respect to anoptimization goal (e.g., 20% reduction in energy costs). In some cases,the facility may select a constraint-violating simulation if theconstraint-violating simulation better satisfies an optimization goaland the extent of the violations does not exceed a predeterminedthreshold. A user may be able to explicitly opt out of these selectionsduring a setup or configuration process or implicitly opt out byoverriding inputs to the energy system while the corresponding plan isbeing executed by the energy system.

In some embodiments, once a simulation is selected, the facilityconverts the simulated inputs to control instructions and transmits thecontrol instructions for execution by the corresponding energy systemand related devices. For example, simulated inputs for a thermostat canbe converted to instructions for controlling the thermostat and thentransmitted to the thermostat or a related control device.Alternatively, the control instructions may be transmitted to a homeautomation cloud service for transmission to a corresponding device inaccordance with policies of the home automation service. The controlinstructions may be transmitted individually or as part of acomprehensive schedule. Accordingly, the control schedule can beimplemented or executed by the appropriate devices and systems duringthe corresponding optimization period to best meet the optimizationgoals used to generate the simulations in accordance with anycorresponding constraints. In some instances, the facility mayperiodically or regularly compare actual environmental conditions to thepredicted environmental conditions used to select a modeling parameterset for model calibration. In response to determining that actualenvironmental conditions are significantly different from environmentalconditions associated with the modeling parameter set, the facility canupdate the environmental conditions and generate a new plan for theenergy system. For example, if the selected modeling parameter set for abuilding specifies no occupancy from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. but the facilitydetermines that the building has been occupied from 9 a.m. to 11 a.m.(and assumes that the building will remain occupied), the facility canselect a new modeling parameter set to reflect this variation. Asanother example, the facility may generate a new control schedule whenthe actual outdoor temperature is significantly different from predictedtemperature values used to select a modeling parameter set (e.g., if apredicted maximum or minimum temperature is off by more than 20%).Similarly, if the facility determines that a user or other entityregularly overrides the adjustments caused by the control schedule, thefacility may automatically update one or more constraints and select anew simulation for implementation. For example, if the control schedulewas generated based on a constraint that specifies that the internaltemperature should not drop below 65° F. but the thermostat is adjustedup (higher temperature) every time the internal temperature drops below70° F., the facility can use a new constraint specifying that theinternal temperature should not drop below 70° F. in order to select amore appropriate simulation and generate a new control schedule.

FIG. 1 is a block diagram illustrating an environment 100 in which thedisclosed facility may operate in accordance with some embodiments ofthe disclosed technology. Environment 100 includes orchestrated energyfacility 110, utilities 120, buildings 130, devices 135, energy serviceproviders 140, data services 150, and network 160. Orchestrated energyfacility 110 comprises optimize component 112, modeling parameter setsdata store 113, build library component 114, select modeling parameterset component 115, generate plan component 116, linearize component 117,implement plan component 118, and plans data store 119. The facilityinvokes optimize component 112 to generate and implement a plan for anenergy system that best satisfies a specified goal in a mannerconsistent with specified constraints. Modeling parameter sets datastore 113 stores modeling parameter sets for any number of devices orsystems, such as an entire building or any individual devices, such as awater pump, a pool heater, a lamp, and so on. The facility invokes buildlibrary component 114 to generate and store modeling parameter sets foran energy system over a predefined period. The facility invokes selectmodeling parameter set component 115 to select an appropriate modelingparameter set for an optimization period. The facility invokes generateplan component 116 to generate a plan for an energy system based on aset of goals and/or constraints.

The facility invokes linearize component 117 to linearize a segment ofan energy system response system. The facility invokes implement plancomponent 118 to implement the simulated inputs in an energy system forwhich the plan was generated. Plans data store 119 stores the plansgenerated by generate plan component 116 or plans received from othersources, such as a utility or a user, such as a custom plan generated byor on behalf of a user. Each user may be affiliated with a particularbuilding (e.g., the owner of a home, the facilities manager of abuilding, and so on). In some cases, a user may interact with thefacility via a fixed device (e.g., a smart thermostat connected to anHVAC system, a handheld mobile device or other computing deviceconfigured to communicate with the facility). For example, the facilitymay send messages to the user, such as alerts to communicate changes toa control schedule, alternative control schedules that may be moreefficient, costs savings for a particular optimization period, progresswith respect to a particular goal for an energy system, and so on. Thesemessages may include prompts asking the user various questions withrespect to the optimizations, such as whether they are currentlycomfortable with how the energy system is operating (e.g., “Is the roomwarm enough?”, “Is the room warm enough when you wake up?,” “Is the poolclean enough?,” “Is the electric vehicle battery sufficiently chargedwhen you need it?”).

In some embodiments, various components of the facility may be executedwithin a single computing device or may be distributed among a pluralityof computing systems, including remote computing systems. For example,in some embodiments the orchestrated energy facility 110 may be storedat and under the control of a utility 120 or within a building 130. Asanother example, one or more generate plan components 116 may executeunder control of a utility 120 while one or more implement plancomponents 118 execute within a building 130, device 135, and so on.Utilities 120 each represent one or more companies or entities thatmanage and provide access to various resources, such as electricity,natural gas, cable, water, and sewage, and so on to end users. Forexample, utilities 120 may include a gas company, an electric company, apublic water utility, and so on. Each utility may provide the facilitywith, for example, cost information, such as an energy cost schedule.Buildings 130 and devices 135 represent various systems and devices forwhich the facility may optimize energy consumption or which the facilitymay use to optimize energy consumption. For example, one device mayinclude a sensor for measuring ambient air temperature inside or outsidea building, pool temperature, battery temperature, external humidity,and so on.

The buildings and devices can include any number of energy systems,devices, sensors, and so on, that may be used to provide environmentalsystem characteristics to the facility. For example, a building mayinclude a thermostat that can provide the facility with current settingsfor an HVAC system within the building. The facility may communicatewith these devices directly or indirectly (e.g., via a home automationsystem cloud, such as the ECOBEE cloud). In some cases, the facilityuses a device abstraction layer or service so that the facility cancommunicate with the different devices (e.g., devices from differentcompanies) using a consistent set of messages over all devices. Thedevice abstract layer or service provides a translation between thenative communication protocol for the facility and the nativecommunication protocol for a particular device. In this manner, thefacility is agnostic with respect to which devices and systems thefacility uses to collect information and/or implement optimized controlschedules. Energy service providers 140 represent entities that sellenergy to the utilities. Data providers 150 provide access toinformation that the facility may use to, for example, select modelingparameter sets or generate simulations, such as weather information(e.g., forecasts and actual values of temperature, humidity, pressure),energy cost information, sun information (e.g., sunrise, sunset,position, path). Network 160 represents communications links over whichthe various elements of environment 100 may communicate, such as theInternet, a local area network, and so on.

The computing devices and systems on which the orchestrated energyfacility 110 and related components may be implemented may include acentral processing unit, input devices, output devices (e.g., displaydevices and speakers), storage devices (e.g., memory and disk drives),network interfaces, graphics processing units, accelerometers, cellularradio link interfaces, global positioning system devices, and so on. Theinput devices may include keyboards, pointing devices, touchscreens,gesture recognition devices (e.g., for air gestures), thermostat, smartdevices, head and eye tracking devices, microphones for voicerecognition, and so on. The computing devices may include desktopcomputers, laptops, tablets, e-readers, personal digital assistants,smartphones, gaming devices, servers, and computer systems such asmassively parallel systems. The computing devices may accesscomputer-readable media that include computer-readable storage media anddata transmission media. The computer-readable storage media aretangible storage means that do not include a transitory, propagatingsignal. Examples of computer-readable storage media include memory suchas primary memory, cache memory, and secondary memory (e.g., DVD) andinclude other storage means. The computer-readable storage media mayhave recorded upon or may be encoded with computer-executableinstructions or logic that implements the collaboration icon system. Inaddition, the stored information may be encrypted. The data transmissionmedia are used for transmitting data via transitory propagating signalsor carrier waves (e.g., electromagnetism) via a wired or wirelessconnection. In addition, the transmitted information may be encrypted.In some cases, the facility may transmit various alerts to a user basedon a transmission schedule, such as an alert to inform the user that agoal for a given period has or has not been met or that one or morechanges to a constraint may enable the system to further optimize agoal. Furthermore, the facility may transmit an alert over a wirelesscommunications channel to a wireless device associated with a remoteuser to a computer of the remote user based on a destination addressassociated with the user and a transmission schedule. In some cases,such an alert can activate a viewer application to cause the alert todisplay on a remote user computer and to enable connection via a URL toa data source over the Internet when the wireless device is locallyconnected to the remote user computer and the remote user computer comesonline. Various communications links may be used, such as the Internet,a local area network, a wide area network, a point-to-point dial-upconnection, a cell phone network, and so on.

The orchestrated energy facility 110 may be described in the generalcontext of computer-executable instructions, such as program modules andcomponents, executed by one or more computers, processors, or otherdevices. Generally, program modules or components include routines,programs, objects, data structures, and so on that perform particulartasks or implement particular data types. Typically, the functionalityof the program modules may be combined or distributed as desired invarious embodiments. Aspects of the orchestrated energy facility 110 maybe implemented in hardware using, for example, an application-specificintegrated circuit (ASIC).

FIG. 2 is a flow diagram illustrating the processing of an optimizecomponent in accordance with some embodiments of the disclosedtechnology. The optimize component is invoked by the facility togenerate and implement a plan for an energy system that best satisfies aspecified optimization goal or goals in a manner consistent withspecified constraints over an optimization period. In block 210, thecomponent obtains or generates one or more generic models based on thephysics of the energy consuming device. Each generic model includes oneor more inputs and one or more outputs and relates the inputs to theoutputs. For example, an energy model for a building may include inputsrelated to, for example, a) climate, b) (thermal) envelope, c) internalgains from lighting, equipment, and occupants, d) heating, cooling, andventilation systems, e) schedules of occupants, f) equipment, g)lighting, h) utility rates, and so on, and output energy use predictionsrelated to, for example, a) heating, b) cooling, c) lighting, d) fan,and so on. As another example, an energy model for a battery-chargingsystem may include inputs related to battery type, battery age, batterytemperature, and so on, and output predictions related to batterycharge, rate of charge, and so on. In some embodiments, rather than (orin addition to) obtaining or generating a generic model, the componentgenerates a predictive model from measured values (e.g.,previously-measured values corresponding to predictive and independentvariables for the model) using standard modeling or machine learningtechniques, such as supervised learning techniques, regressiontechniques (e.g., linear regressions, logistic regressions, polynomialregressions, stepwise regressions, boosted tree regressions, gradientboosting), random forests, classification and regression trees, neuralnetworks, least squares, and so on. In block 220, the componentdetermines attributes of the energy system and the period for whichenergy consumption is to be optimized, such as the size of a building,weather forecast information, energy pricing and tariff information,light bulb types, and so on. In blocks 230-280, the component repeatedly(e.g., once per hour, once per day, twice per day, in response to a userinteraction) generates and implements a plan for the energy system inaccordance with optimization goals and constraints. In block 240, thecomponent invokes a select modeling parameter set component, whichselects or generates an appropriate modeling parameter set for theenergy system and the optimization period based at least in part on thedetermined attributes. In block 250, the component calibrates anygeneric model(s) using the collected observables and selected modelingparameter set. In block 260, the component invokes a generate plancomponent to determine a set of inputs to the energy system that bestsatisfies the optimization goals in accordance with the constraints. Inblock 270, the component invokes an implement plan component to causethe energy system to implement the determined set of inputs during theoptimization period. In block 280, the component loops back to block 240to select a modeling parameter set for optimization during a subsequentperiod. In some cases, processing of the component may complete if thereis no corresponding subsequent period. In some embodiments, a means foroptimizing an energy system comprises one or more computers orprocessors configured to carry out an algorithm disclosed in FIG. 2 andthis paragraph in the order described therein.

FIG. 3 is a data structure diagram illustrating a modeling parametersets data store in accordance with some embodiments of the disclosedtechnology. Modeling parameter set library 300 includes a number ofmodeling parameter sets for various buildings. In this example, each ofthe modeling parameter sets was generated over the course of a day bycollecting observable information for the building and measures variousvalues over the course of the day. Modeling parameter set library 300includes rows 301-305, each corresponding to a modeling parameter set,and columns 310-360. Column 310 represents a building identifier foreach row. The building identifier is a unique identifier for thebuilding for which the corresponding modeling parameter set wasgenerated. Column 320 stores a size value (square footage) for thebuilding. Outside temp column 330 stores three temperature values forthe building based on measurements taken over the course of the day,including minimum (min) temperature, median (med) temperature, andmaximum (max) temperature. Day of the week column 340 stores the day ofthe week for which the modeling parameter set was generated. Premiseinformation 350 stores additional information (not shown) related toenergy consumption within the building, such as construction material,device information (e.g., brand, model), insulation type, and so on,such as information stored in a binary large object. Location column 360stores location information for each building, such as an address, GPScoordinates, city and state information, and so on. One skilled in theart will appreciate that while FIG. 3 provides an illustration that iseasily comprehensible by a human reader, the actual information may bestored using different data structures and data organizations.Furthermore, one of ordinary skill in the art will recognize that themodeling parameter set library 300 may include additional columnsstoring values for other variables and attributes, such as date, time,time range, and so on. Furthermore, modeling parameter set library 300may include parameter sets for energy system(s) and/or device(s) otherthan buildings or devices within buildings. Additionally, informationfor different variables or groups of variables may be stored in separatedata structures.

FIG. 4 is a flow diagram illustrating the processing of a build librarycomponent in accordance with some embodiments of the disclosedtechnology. The build library component is invoked by the facility togenerate and store modeling parameter sets for an energy system over apredefined period. In block 410, the component collects the observablevalues for the modeling parameter set to be generated, such as squarefootage of a building, fixed premise information, the day of the week,location information for the building, and so on. In block 420, thecomponent sets a measurement frequency, which determines how often thecomponent measures the measurable values to be included in the modelingparameter set to be generated (e.g., once per minute, once per hour,once every other hour, and so on). In decision block 430, if ameasurement is triggered (i.e., if the measurement frequency time hasbeen satisfied), then the component continues at block 440, else thecomponent continues at block 435. In decision block 435, if thecomponent determines that a user has made an adjustment to one or moreinputs to the energy system, then the component continues at block 440,else the component continues at decision block 430. In block 440, thecomponent measures the measurable values to be included in the modelingparameter set to be generated, such as the current outdoor temperature,humidity, time, and so on. In block 450, the component stores themeasured values. In decision block 460, if the predefined period hasexpired, then the component continues at block 470, else the componentloops back to decision block 430. In block 470, the component iteratesover the non-measurable values included in the modeling parameter set(e.g., calibration variables that may not be measurable directly) toestimate a value for each. In one embodiment, the component establishedthe non-measurable values in the modeling parameter set using a particleswarm technique, a simulated annealing technique, or the like. In block480, the component stores a new record in a modeling parameter setlibrary. In some cases, the component may further analyze the measuredvariables before storing, such as determining a minimum, median, and/ormaximum value for one or more variables measured over the course of thepredefined period. In some embodiments, a means for building a modelingparameter set library comprises one or more computers or processorsconfigured to carry out an algorithm disclosed in FIG. 4 and thisparagraph in the order described therein.

FIG. 5 is a flow diagram illustrating the processing of a selectmodeling parameter set component in accordance with some embodiments ofthe disclosed technology. The select modeling parameter set component isinvoked by the facility to select an appropriate modeling parameter setfor an optimization period. In block 510, the component identifies theenergy system to be optimized using the modeling parameter set to beselected. For example, the component may receive an indication of aunique identifier of the energy system. In block 520, the componentdetermines the conditions of the energy system and relevant environmentfor the optimization period, such as forecasted weather information,predicted occupancy information, day of the week, and so on. Thecomponent compares the determined condition information to modelingparameter sets in one or more modeling parameter set libraries todetermine whether there is an exact match. In decision block 530, ifthere is an exact match, then the component continues at block 535, elsethe component continues at decision block 540. In block 535, thecomponent selects the exact match and then returns the selected modelingparameter set. In block 540, the component identifies the closest matchbetween the determined conditions and the stored modeling parametersets. For example, the component may calculate a distance between thedetermined conditions and each of the stored modeling parameter sets.For example, if the forecasted minimum, median, and maximum outdoortemperatures for a building are 60, 70, and 80, respectively, then thedistance between the temperature values for modeling parameter set 301and the forecasted values can be calculated according to the followingequation:√{square root over ((56−60)²+(71−70)²+(78−80)²)}.In some cases, the component may apply weights to various attributesused to calculate the distance. In decision block 550, if the differencebetween the closest match and the determined conditions is less than orequal to a predetermined threshold, then the component continues atblock 555, else the component continues at block 560. In block 555, thecomponent selects the closest match and then returns the selectedmodeling parameter set. In block 560, the component generates a blendedmodeling parameter set. In block 570, the component selects the blendedmodeling parameter set and then returns the selected modeling parameterset. In some embodiments, a means for selecting a modeling parameter setcomprises one or more computers or processors configured to carry out analgorithm disclosed in FIG. 5 and this paragraph in the order describedtherein.

FIG. 6 is a flow diagram illustrating the processing of a generate plancomponent in accordance with some embodiments of the disclosedtechnology. The generate plan component is invoked by the facility togenerate a set of inputs to an energy system based on one or morecalibrated models. The generate plan component identifies a set ofinputs that provides the best fit to a corresponding goal or goals inaccordance with, in some cases, one or more constraints. In block 605,the component identifies any constraints associated with the plan, suchas a user's preferences on energy usage, timing preferences (e.g., keeptemperate above 65 degrees between 6 pm and midnight), costpreferences). In block 610, the component identifies any objectives orgoals for the plan to be generated, such as reducing or minimizing cost(for a set of constraints), reducing or minimizing energy consumption(consistent with a set of constraints), and so on. In blocks 615-650,the component loops through each of the constraints in order tolinearize the constraint. In block 620, the component identifies orgenerates equations for the constraint representative of 1)susceptibility of the energy system to change conditions due to theengine(s) responsible for driving the conditions within the energysystem (e.g., an HVAC system, a battery charger, a pool pump) away fromexternal conditions or toward another state (e.g., how much energy ittakes to raise or lower the temperature within a room by one degree, howmuch energy it takes for an automated vacuum cleaner to clean a portionof a room), 2) drive strength of the engine(s) to change conditionswithin the energy system (e.g., the rate at which a room warms or coolswhile an HVAC system is enabled, the rate at which dust particles ordust clumps are removed while an automated vacuum clear is operating),and 3) the entropy rate which measures how quickly the conditions withinthe energy system tend toward higher entropy in the absence of theengine(s) operating, wherein each condition can be physicallyconstrained or constrained based on user preferences (e.g., the rate atwhich a building or room warms or cools while an HVAC system isdisabled, the rate at which dust particles or dust clumps are createdand dispersed within a room using, for example, models based on Brownianmotion and particle electrostatics). In some embodiments, equations canbe generated once per class of devices, and the coefficients for theequations are determined based upon the identified non-measurable valuesin the modeling parameters. The equations can be generated based on acalibrated model for the energy system. Each of these equations canchange with external conditions, such as time of day, outdoortemperature, weather occupancy, and so on. To calculate the entropyrate, the component simulates an “engine off” circumstance over each setof external conditions for a selected forecast period (e.g., each of 4-6forecast periods over 24 hours), and then records the rate of change ofthe conditions of the energy system for each set of external conditions.For example, in the absence of a cooling engine operating at what ratedoes the temperature in the house rise or fall by one degree? Tocalculate the drive strength, the facility simulates an “engine on”circumstance at various times and under various conditions to find the“nameplate capacity” of the engine. The facility may find the nameplatecapacity by minimizing the error between the simulations and measureddata (i.e., smallest error rate between the coefficients used in thelinear model and those used the calibrated model). To calculate thesusceptibility, the facility simulates an “engine on” circumstance overeach set of external conditions, and records the engine energy necessaryto change the conditions of the energy system by one unit. For example,when the cooling system is operating, how much energy did it use tolower the temperature by one degree. Susceptibility takes into accountboth the nameplate capacity of the engine as well as the efficiency ofthe engine, which may vary with the external conditions. In blocks625-645, the component loops through each of the generated or identifiedequations and linearizes the values generated for the constraint. Inblock 635, the component retrieves the calibrated model values for aforecast period or periods (e.g., forecasted external conditions,measured values, non-measurable values, predictive values, explanatoryvalues). In block 640, the component invokes a linearize component tolinearize the measured values. In block 645, the component loops back toblock 625 to select the next equation. In block 650, the component loopsback to block 615, to select the next constraint. In block 655, thecomponent invokes a linear program, such as a mixed integer linearprogram using the linearized constraints and the identified objective(s)or goal(s) to produce a set of inputs to the energy system that willresult in 1) a plan consistent with the specified constraints and 2) theachieves or approximates the identified objective or goal. In block 660,the component stores the set of inputs as a plan and then completes. Insome embodiments, a means for generating a plan comprises one or morecomputers or processors configured to carry out an algorithm disclosedin FIG. 6 and this paragraph in the order described therein.

FIG. 7 is a flow diagram illustrating the processing of a linearizecomponent in accordance with some embodiments of the disclosedtechnology. The component invokes the linearize component to linearize aconstraint for a given time period. In block 705, the componentidentifies time segments for the time period. The time segments may bedetermined, for example, automatically based on the length of theperiod, using a fixed interval, using a fixed number of segments, usinga user-defined value, and so on. In blocks 710-755, the component loopsthrough each of the identified time segments to simulate the performanceof the energy system during that time segment based on simulatedconditions of the energy system and simulated external conditions thataffect the energy system. In block 715, the component sets thegranularity for the simulations. The granularity may be determined, forexample, automatically based on the length of the segment, using a fixedinterval, using a fixed number of segment slices, using a user-definedvalue, and so on. In blocks 720-755, the component loops through each ofthe time segment slices. In block 725, the component performs one ormore simulations for each time segment slice based on the associatedforecasted values and the calibrated model. In some embodiments, thecomponent relies on an error tolerance value to determine how manysimulations to perform. In block 735, the component calculates anr-squared value for the simulation based on the simulated values and thevalues from the calibrated model. In block 735, the component calculatesan r-squared value for each simulation based on the simulated values andthe measured values. In decision block 745, if the maximum r-squaredvalue calculated for the time segment slice is greater than or equal toa predefined threshold (e.g., 0.2, 0.5, 0.75. 0.99), then the componentcontinues at block 750, else the component loops back to block 715 toadjust the granularity and perform another set of one or moresimulations for the time segment slice. In block 750, the componentstores the simulated values for the simulation having the greatestr-squared value for the time segment slice. In block 755, the componentloops back to block 720 to select the next time slice segment. In block760, the component loops back to block 710, to select the next timeslice. In block 765, the component returns the stored values in the formof coefficients for the currently-selected equation. In someembodiments, a means for linearizing comprises one or more computers orprocessors configured to carry out an algorithm disclosed in FIG. 7 andthis paragraph in the order described therein.

FIG. 8 is a flow diagram illustrating the processing of an implementplan component in accordance with some embodiments of the disclosedtechnology. The implement plan component is invoked by the facilityduring the optimization period to implement the simulated inputs in anenergy system for which the plan was generated. In block 810, thecomponent receives the plan to be implemented and an indication of themodeling parameter set used to generate the plan to be implemented. Inblock 820, the component identifies the adjustment times included in theplan, each adjustment time representing a time at which one or moreinputs to the energy system are to be adjusted. In block 830, thecomponent determines values for variable conditions, such as the currenttemperature, occupancy information, and so on. In decision block 840, ifthe difference between one or more of the determined conditions and themodeling parameter set used to generate the plan, then the componentcontinues at block 860 to generate a new plan based on updated conditioninformation, else the component continues at decision block 850. Forexample, if the component determines that a modeling parameter set wasselected based on a forecasted high temperature of 75° F. but thecomponent determines that the current temperature is greater than 75°F., then the component can generate a new plan based on the updatedinformation. In decision block 850, if a user overrides one of theinputs specified by the plan, then the component continues at block 860to generate a new plan based on the user's override, else the componentcontinues at decision block 870. In block 860, the component invokes agenerate plan component to generate a new plan and then loops back toblock 820 to identify adjustment times for the new plan. In 870, if anadjustment time has occurred, then the component continues at block 880,else the component loops back to block 830 to update the values for thevariable conditions. In block 880, the component implements theadjustment(s) corresponding to the current adjustment time. In block890, if the optimization period is complete, then processing of thecomponent completes, else the component loops back to block 830 toupdate the values for the variable conditions. In some embodiments, ameans for implementing a plan comprises one or more computers orprocessors configured to carry out an algorithm disclosed in FIG. 8 andthis paragraph in the order described therein.

Unless the context clearly requires otherwise, throughout thedescription and the claims, the words “comprise,” “comprising,” and thelike are to be construed in an inclusive sense, as opposed to anexclusive or exhaustive sense; that is to say, in the sense of“including, but not limited to.” As used herein, the terms “connected,”“coupled,” or any variant thereof, mean any connection or coupling,either direct or indirect, between two or more elements; the coupling orconnection between the elements can be physical, logical, or acombination thereof. Additionally, the words “herein,” “above,” “below,”and words of similar import, when used in this application, refer tothis application as a whole and not to any particular portions of thisapplication. Where the context permits, words in the above DetailedDescription using the singular or plural number may also include theplural or singular number, respectively. The word “or” in reference to alist of two or more items, covers all of the following interpretationsof the word: any of the items in the list all of the items in the list,and any combination of the items in the list.

The above Detailed Description of examples of the invention is notintended to be exhaustive or to limit the invention to the precise formdisclosed above. While specific examples for the invention are describedabove for illustrative purposes, various equivalent modifications arepossible within the scope of the invention, as those skilled in therelevant art will recognize. For example, while processes or blocks arepresented in a given order, alternative implementations may performroutines having steps, or employ systems having blocks, in a differentorder, and some processes or blocks may be deleted, moved, added,subdivided, combined, and/or modified to provide alternativecombinations or subcombinations. Each of these processes or blocks maybe implemented in a variety of different ways. Also, while processes orblocks are at times shown as being performed in series, these processesor blocks may instead be performed or implemented in parallel, or may beperformed at different times. Further, any specific numbers noted hereinare only examples: alternative implementations may employ differingvalues or ranges.

The teachings of the invention provided herein can be applied to othersystems, not necessarily the system described above. The elements andacts of the various examples described above can be combined to providefurther implementations of the invention. Some alternativeimplementations of the invention may include not only additionalelements to those implementations noted above, but also may includefewer elements.

Any patents and applications and other references noted above, includingany that may be listed in accompanying filing papers, are incorporatedherein by reference. Aspects of the invention can be modified, ifnecessary, to employ the systems, functions, and concepts of the variousreferences described above to provide yet further implementations of theinvention.

These and other changes can be made to the invention in light of theabove Detailed Description. While the above description describescertain examples of the invention, and describes the best modecontemplated, no matter how detailed the above appears in text, theinvention can be practiced in many ways. Details of the system may varyconsiderably in the specific implementation, while still beingencompassed by the invention disclosed herein. As noted above,particular terminology used when describing certain features or aspectsof the invention should not be taken to imply that the terminology isbeing redefined herein to be restricted to any specific characteristics,features, or aspects of the invention with which that terminology isassociated. In general, the terms used in the following claims shouldnot be construed to limit the invention to the specific examplesdisclosed in the specification, unless the above Detailed Descriptionsection explicitly defines such terms. Accordingly, the actual scope ofthe invention encompasses not only the disclosed examples, but also allequivalent ways of practicing or implementing the invention under theclaims.

To reduce the number of claims, certain aspects of the invention arepresented below in certain claim forms, but the applicant contemplatesthe various aspects of the invention in any number of claim forms. Forexample, while only one aspect of the invention is recited as ameans-plus-function claim under 35 U.S.C. § 112(f), other aspects maylikewise be embodied as a means-plus-function claim, or in other forms,such as being embodied in a computer-readable medium. (Any claimsintended to be treated under 35 U.S.C. § 112(f) will begin with thewords “means for”, but use of the term “for” in any other context is notintended to invoke treatment under 35 U.S.C. § 112(f).) Accordingly, theapplicant reserves the right to pursue additional claims after filingthis application to pursue such additional claim forms, in either thisapplication or in a continuing application.

Although the subject matter has been described in language specific tostructural features and/or methodological acts, it is to be understoodthat the subject matter defined in the appended claims is notnecessarily limited to the specific features or acts described above.The specific features and acts described above are disclosed as exampleforms of implementing the claims. Accordingly, the invention is notlimited except as by the appended claims.

From the foregoing, it will be appreciated that specific embodiments ofthe invention have been described herein for purposes of illustration,but that various modifications may be made without deviating from thescope of the invention. Accordingly, the invention is not limited exceptas by the appended claims.

We claim:
 1. A method, performed by a computing system, for managingenergy consumption within an energy-consuming system during a period,the method comprising: determining, by the computing system,environmental conditions for the energy-consuming system, whereindetermining at least one environmental condition for theenergy-consuming system comprises invoking a device abstraction layer orservice to communicate with a first device; calibrating, by thecomputing system, at least one of a plurality of models; identifying, bythe computing system, one or more constraints for the period;identifying, by the computing system, one or more objectives for theperiod; determining, for the energy-consuming system, susceptibility ofthe energy-consuming system to change conditions based on at least afirst component and a second component within the energy-consumingsystem that drives conditions within the energy-consuming system,wherein the first component is a heating, ventilation, and airconditioning (HVAC) component and the second component is not an HVACcomponent, drive strength of at least the first component and the secondcomponent within the energy-consuming system that drives conditionswithin the energy-consuming system, and an entropy rate in the absenceof at least the first component and the second component within theenergy-consuming system that drives conditions within theenergy-consuming system; modeling the susceptibility, drive strength,and entropy rate; performing a plurality of simulations, wherein eachsimulation generates a plurality of simulated input values to thecalibrated at least one model and a plurality of simulated responses tothe simulated input values; optimizing, by the computing system, thesimulated input values generated for a prediction quantity by theperformed simulation; generating, by the computing system, a controlschedule for the energy-consuming system during the period based atleast in part on the identified one or more constraints for the period,the identified one or more objectives for the period, thesusceptibility, the drive strength, and the entropy rate; andcontrolling a heating, ventilation, and air conditioning system inaccordance with the generated control schedule.
 2. The method of claim1, further comprising: periodically generating a modeling parameter setfor the energy-consuming system and storing the generated modelingparameter set.
 3. The method of claim 1, further comprising: providingthe generated control schedule to the energy-consuming system.
 4. Themethod of claim 1, wherein the models include: a thermal model, and anelectrical model.
 5. The method of claim 1, wherein the determinedenvironmental conditions comprise: at least one weather-related valuefor the energy-consuming system during the period, at least oneoccupancy-related value for the energy-consuming system during theperiod, at least one size-related value for the energy-consuming systemduring the period, or any combination thereof.
 6. The method of claim 5,wherein the at least one weather-related value for the energy-consumingsystem comprises a forecasted outdoor temperature, a forecasted outdoorhumidity, or forecasted solar irradiance for the energy-consuming systemfor the period, wherein the at least one occupancy-related value for theenergy-consuming system comprises a day of the week for the period, andwherein the at least one size-related value for the energy-consumingsystem comprises an area of the energy-consuming system.
 7. The methodof claim 1, wherein the energy-consuming system is one of: a pool pump,an electric vehicle charger, a lighting system, or a water heater. 8.The method of claim 1, further comprising: obtaining, by the computingsystem, a plurality of generic models representative of energyconsumption; and identifying, by the computing system, a modelingparameter set for the period, wherein the calibrating comprisescalibrating at least one of the obtained generic models representativeof energy consumption based at least in part on the selected modelingparameter set for the period.
 9. The method of claim 1, wherein at leastone of the identified objectives is a user-specified objective.
 10. Themethod of claim 1, wherein optimizing the simulated input valuesgenerated for the prediction quantity comprises linearly optimizing thesimulated input values generated for the prediction quantity by theperformed simulation.
 11. A method, performed by a computing system, formanaging energy consumption during a period within an energy-consumingsystem having a Heating, Ventilating, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systemwith HVAC components, and having a plurality of energy consuming,non-HVAC components, the method comprising: determining, by thecomputing system, environmental conditions for the energy-consumingsystem, wherein determining at least one environmental condition for theenergy-consuming system comprises invoking a device abstraction layer orservice to communicate with a first device; calibrating, by thecomputing system, at least one of a plurality of models; identifying, bythe computing system, a modeling parameter set for the period;identifying, by the computing system, one or more constraints for theperiod; identifying, by the computing system, one or more objectives forthe period; determining, for the energy-consuming system, susceptibilityof the energy-consuming system to change conditions based on at least afirst component and a second component within the energy-consumingsystem that drives conditions within the energy-consuming system,wherein the first component is a HVAC component and the second componentis a non-HVAC component, drive strength of at least the first componentand the second component within the energy-consuming system that drivesconditions within the energy-consuming system, and an entropy rate inthe absence of at least the first component and the second componentwithin the energy-consuming system that drives conditions within theenergy-consuming system; performing a plurality of simulations, whereineach simulation generates a plurality of simulated input values to thecalibrated at least one model and a plurality of simulated responses tothe simulated input values; optimizing, by the computing system, thesimulated input values generated for a prediction quantity by theperformed simulation; generating, by the computing system, a controlschedule for the energy-consuming system during the period based atleast in part on the identified one or more constraints for the period,the identified one or more objectives for the period, thesusceptibility, drive strength, and entropy rate; and controlling theHVAC system in accordance with the generated control schedule.
 12. Themethod of claim 11, further comprising: periodically generating amodeling parameter set for the energy-consuming system and storing thegenerated modeling parameter set.
 13. The method of claim 11, whereinthe determined environmental conditions comprise: a weather-relatedvalue for the energy-consuming system during the period, anoccupancy-related value for the energy-consuming system during theperiod, a size-related value for the energy-consuming system during theperiod, or any combination thereof.
 14. The method of claim 13, whereinthe weather-related value for the energy-consuming system comprises aforecasted outdoor temperature, a forecasted outdoor humidity, orforecasted solar irradiance for the energy-consuming system for theperiod, wherein the occupancy-related value for the energy-consumingsystem comprises a day of the week for the period, and wherein the atleast one size-related value for the energy-consuming system comprisesan area of the energy-consuming system.
 15. The method of claim 11,wherein the non-HVAC component is one of: a pool pump, an electricvehicle charger, a lighting system, or a water heater.